One Crowd, Three Cascades: Information Diffusion in LLM-Agent Simulations Is Governed by Serialization, Not Society

LLM-agent simulations are increasingly used to study how information spreads through a population, and are validated by matching macroscopic cascade statistics—final reach, structural virality, cascade-size shape—to real diffusion data. We argue this cannot certify fidelity, and show it empirically. We measure an LLM agent's exposure-response curve—its probability of adopting given $k$ of $d$ active neighbors—then hold that social fact fixed and change only its serialization: a count ("3 of 10"), a fraction ("30%"), or an enumeration of names. The encodings are semantically identical, so a faithful mechanism must be invariant to them. It is not. Across five scenarios on a local model, the inferred contagion class (simple vs. complex) flips with serialization in four of five, and the final epidemic size on a fixed network and seed changes by a median factor of $1.9\times$ (over $100\times$ when an enumerated list collapses adoption); aggregate encodings even produce a non-monotonic reversal at saturation that no contagion model (SIR, independent cascade, linear threshold) admits. Since one can reach almost any target cascade by choosing the encoding, matching a macroscopic observable does not identify a social mechanism. We turn semantic invariance into a cheap, API-free serialization-invariance diagnostic: rerun under equivalent serializations of neighbor state; if the cascade diverges, the result is a typographical artifact, not a social dynamic. All experiments run on small local models on a laptop.